How to Enter China's Online Gaming Market: Legal

china online gaming market share

china online gaming market share - win

CORSAIR EARNINGS PLAY, The DD you've been waiting for

Corsair Gaming ($CRSR)
Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming
Company Overview
Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California.
They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market.
Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B.
Understanding the Business
Value Proposition
Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly.
Revenue Streams
Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems.
Gamer and Creator Peripherals:
which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers.
Gaming Components Systems:
which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems.
Acquisitions and Partnerships:
During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers.
Industry
Market Size
According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year.
Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B.
Industry Fundamentals
Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals.
Popularity of gaming is increasing:
According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market.
Tech-driven improvements in game quality:
Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware.
Increasing gaming and streaming engagement:
Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
The eSports and streaming flywheel
The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers.
Competitive Landscape & Risks
Competition
The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes:
Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer
Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX
Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia
Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech
PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake
High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron
Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower
Competitive Strategy
The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition.
Market Share
According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US.
Growth Strategy
Move into the Asia Pacific region:
The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community.
Complimentary acquisitions:
Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position.
New Markets:
Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment.
Threat of New Entrants
Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers).
Threat of Substitution
A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment.
Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components.
According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027.
Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry.
Moats
There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering.
Other Relevant Risks
Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes.
Financial Summary
Proforma Balance Sheet
https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL
Income Statement
https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN
For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year:
The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%).
Proforma Cashflow Statement
https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY
Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019.
Peer Comparison
https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6
Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU)
Why am I posting this now?
I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. Q4 Earnings Include both Black Friday and Christmas Sales
Record pc sales:
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry).
Google trends:
https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5
My price target for this earnings: $65 EDIT: (EOM)
TLDR: $CRSR will crush Q4 earnings 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
Position: 60 Contracts 40c exp 2/19
disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
submitted by asaddoc to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$CRSR Corsair DD / Earnings play

Corsair Gaming ($CRSR)
Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming
Company Overview
Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California.
They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market.
Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B.
Understanding the Business
Value Proposition
Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly.
Revenue Streams
Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems.
Gamer and Creator Peripherals:
which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers.
Gaming Components Systems:
which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems.
Acquisitions and Partnerships:
During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers.
Industry
Market Size
According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year.
Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B.
Industry Fundamentals
Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals.
Popularity of gaming is increasing:
According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market.
Tech-driven improvements in game quality:
Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware.
Increasing gaming and streaming engagement:
Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
The eSports and streaming flywheel
The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers.
Competitive Landscape & Risks
Competition
The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes:
Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer
Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX
Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia
Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech
PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake
High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron
Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower
Competitive Strategy
The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition.
Market Share
According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US.
Growth Strategy
Move into the Asia Pacific region:
The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community.
Complimentary acquisitions:
Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position.
New Markets:
Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment.
Threat of New Entrants
Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers).
Threat of Substitution
A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment.
Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components.
According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027.
Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry.
Moats
There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering.
Other Relevant Risks
Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes.
Financial Summary
Proforma Balance Sheet
https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL
Income Statement
https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN
For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year:
The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%).
Proforma Cashflow Statement
https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY
Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019.
Peer Comparison
https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6
Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU)
Why am I posting this now?
I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets.
Record pc sales:
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry).
Google trends:
https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5
My price target for this earnings: $55
disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted.
credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
submitted by erythaean to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

($HUYA, $SKLZ) Flashing DD - Sleeping E-Sports Streaming Giant - 20 Day SMA Ground Floor

($HUYA, $SKLZ) Flashing DD - Sleeping E-Sports Streaming Giant - 20 Day SMA Ground Floor
What is $HUYA?
https://preview.redd.it/f5zvon2zycg61.png?width=1103&format=png&auto=webp&s=5723e7029fef4de98587d7adc23b075a126eabb3
Your mother, grandmother, auntie, and your wife's girlfriend know all about online games and esports streaming. Why not you? Stop working your right hand to your sister's onlyfans and put on your big boy pants for some solid DD. Stop getting off topic. No we're not talking about your lack of cunnilingus SKLZ exacerbating your wife's lesbian adventures. We're talking about Huya, your new Asian sugar momma who just wants to talk to your meat.

What is HUYA?
HUYA Inc. operates live game streaming platforms in China. Its platforms enable broadcasters and viewers to interact during live streaming (emotes, donations, subs). Its live streaming content covers a library of games, including mobile, PC, and console games; and other entertainment genres, such as talent shows, anime, outdoor activities, live chats, online theatre, and other genres. The company operates Nimo TV, a game live streaming platform primarily in Southeast Asia and Latin America. It also provides online advertising and marketing services. In addition, the company provides software development and Internet value added services. As of December 31, 2019, its live streaming content covered approximately 3,800 games. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People’s Republic of China. HUYA Inc. is a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.

  • With Tencent's backing, Huya is merging with the second largest game streamer in China, DouYu (estimated 80% market share behemoth post merger).
  • Huya is still growing strongly on its own with or without said merger.
  • 31x 2020 forward earnings does not seem too expensive for a company currently showing strong growth in sales and earnings, while being the game live-streaming leader in China.
  • News broke out that China has anti-trust concerns with said merger between Huya and DouYu. The 8.5% drop today happened swiftly and the stock price is hovering above the 20 SMA.

Website
$HUYA (https://www.huya.com/)
They call Huya The Twitch of China for good reason.

US - China Politics
Politics don't play a role in this.
93.5% of audience originate from China. 2% from Japan. 0.9% from Taiwan.
https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/huya.com

Talk numbers - 12 Months
$HUYA
Revenue 1.53B
Gross Profit 313.80M
Market Cap 5.77B
EBIT 140.64M
Earnings grew by 93.4%
Earnings are forecast to grow 33.11%
Sitting on 20 SMA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=huya
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-huya/huya
*Trading under 4x revenue


$SKLZ Comparison To Upcoming US Esports Streaming Platform
Visit their website for the love of your unborn child https://www.skillz.com/
$SKLZ is the only straight play on an American company with online gaming esports streaming potential. Their website is basically yahoo games from early 2000s. Recent NFL multi year contract with no mobile product yet. The only possible reason why valuations like this exist is their profit margins on their Bingo, Pool, Solitaire... yahoo 2000s games. Careful with this one as once NFL takes a cut from the licensing agreement the margins won't be so gravy. Otherwise this is a house of cards on 15.83B valuation based on 162M revenue grossing 153M. Great profit margins, but valuation is beyond insane with no NFL mobile app. For the smooth brains, you need to multiply 162M x 100 to even get close to the 15.83B valuation.
Revenue 162.39M
Gross Profit 153.59M
Market capital 15.83B
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-sklz/skillz
*Trading at 100x~ times revenue


Conclusion
Huya trades under 4x revenue (Revenue 1.53B | Market Cap 5.77B) for being a leader in online esports streaming in the most populous country with the most gamers in the world. Where else can you find such a gem in this market? The 8.5% drop today from anti-trust concerns is simply smoke and mirrors. With or without the merger between Huya and DouYU this stock is a buy at the current valuation. China and anti-trust concerns are a joke. BABA had anti-trust concerns in Dec 2020 for not reporting prior takeovers and were fined $75k. BABA is valued at 710.47B.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/business/alibaba-antitrust-jack-ma.html


Positions: https://imgur.com/a/Kt4Gc26
Expect some volatility in the near term (possibly increasing IV leading up to earnings). Currently hold 6 2022 LEAPS. Will sell further OTM LEAPS going into earnings to prevent IV crush. Eying the LEAPS in 2023 to sell into earnings and be short Vega right before earnings.
4x JAN 2022 25C
2x JAN 2022 27C
Earnings 3/8


TL;DR
Online esports gaming good. $HUYA trading under 4x revenue. $SKLZ trading 100x~ revenue. Buy $Huya LEAPS.

Disclaimer
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

Edit:
Added 🦍 🚀 💎 🚀 🚀 💎💎 🚀 🚀🚀 💎💎💎 for the reading impaired
submitted by Tsubami to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Huya the most undervalued stock in the market?

The most undervalued stock on Wall Street AND a high short %
Huya operates a freemium platform. It sells ads across its platform, but it generates most of its revenue from virtual gifts viewers can buy for their favorite broadcasters. Last quarter, Huya generated 94% of its revenue from its live streaming business, and the remaining 6% from online ads. Remember this last part.
Huya's monthly active users (MAUs) rose 18% year-over-year to 172.9 million last quarter. Within that total, its mobile MAUs grew 16% to 74.2 million, and its total number of paid users increased 13% to 5.3 million.
CEO Rongjie Dong attributed that growth to an increase in e-sports tournaments throughout the shorter summer and its deeper ties with Tencent, the world's largest video game publisher. If Huya closes its planned merger with Douyu next year, its MAUs could more than double to nearly 370 million, with over 13 million paid users.
PINTEREST has less monthly active users and is worth 50 BILLION!!!!
Huya generates higher profits because it shares a near-duopoly with Douyu, is backed by Tencent's massive video game business, and generates most of its revenue from higher-margin virtual gifts instead of lower-margin digital ads.
Wall Street expects Huya's revenue and earnings to rise 40% and 74%, respectively, this year. Next year, analysts expect its revenue and earnings to rise 23% and 36%, respectively. Based on those estimates, Huya looks incredibly cheap at 19 times forward earnings and just two times next year's sales.
Those forecasts don't account for Huya's potential merger with Douyu, which could easily double its annual revenue. But its valuation should remain roughly the same after the all-stock merger, since it will grant current shareholders of Huya and Douyu equal halves of the new company.
Tencent holdings is about to merge DOYU and HUYA into the biggest online gaming streaming service in China (roughly 80%).
I predict tencent (the “kingmaker”) will turn it into an advertisement giant, they will have roughly 370 million active users (think Pinterest at 50B mcap) at a market cap of 10B (post merger).
This is a HIGHLY shorted stock at 35% of float. It is being manipulated, I believe, because the shorts are having a problem covering with the recent run up (they just filed the merger with the SEC) so an “analyst” gave it a downgrade to help them out today.
This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Huya/DOYU will be a dominate player in the biggest growing sector there is right now (Chinese gaming)... and UNLIKE GameStop, it is a highly profitable business and IS severely undervalued at it’s current price.
I went YOLO with 36,000 shares and will provide updates as it progresses.
submitted by HaveADrinkOnMeCosby to stocks [link] [comments]

$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)

$SNE, MASSIVE DOUBLE DICK INSIDE. Poised to moon long-term (Computer vision boom, EV boom, autonomous driving tech, gaming boom, music streaming boom, cross-media IP, vertically integrated anime streaming monopoly, online medical services boom, shift to mirrorless cameras)
Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!”
Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job.
If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho.
The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year.
Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone.
It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade.
It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade.
The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now.
Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal)
Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation.
Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market.
(ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment)
I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously.
Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella.
So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say.
For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price.
Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story.
Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company.
While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why.
(& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has))
2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012.
No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech.
In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around.
In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be.
In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation).
In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system).

40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S
Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers.
We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao.
But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation?
In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend.
https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/
https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/
In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation.
There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe?
In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon)
(just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite)
A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division.
Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that.
But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:
  • CMOS image sensors & Sony’s overall imaging prowess will boom due to increased demand from automotive sector, security & surveillance industry, manufacturing industry, medical sector and finally from the aerospace & defence industry. On the longer term, image sensors will continue to boom due to increased demand for computer vision & AI + robotics. And for consumer electronics demand will remain very high obviously.
  • Sony is aiming for 60% market share in the CMOS image sensor market by 2026. Biggest threat here is Samsung here who have recently started to aggressively invest in image sensors and are challenging Sony. Sony has technological lead + higher production capacity (and Sony will soon open a new plant in Nagasaki), so Sony should be able to hold off Samsung.
  • The iPhone 12 Pro has 3 cameras + a lidar sensor. Apple now buys 3 image sensors (from Sony) + LiDAR sensor (from Sony) per iPhone 12 Pro they manufacture. Remember the iPhone X and iPhone XS? That one had “only” 2 rear cameras (with image sensos from Sony of course). Basically, Sony will be selling exponentially more image sensors as more smartphones get equipped with more and more cameras.
  • Now think about how many image sensors Sony can sell to Apple if the iPhone 13 will have 5 cameras + LiDAR sensor (I mean the number of cameras on smartphones certainly won’t decrease)
  • Gaming (PS5 hype, PSN game sales are booming, add-on content is booming, PS+ subscribers count is booming and finally PSNow & first-party games sales are trending upwards as well). Very consistent year-on-year profit & revenue growth here. They have a history of beating earnings expectations here. The number of PS+ subscribers went from 4M to 48M in just 6-7 years. Investors love to hype up recurring revenue and subscription services such as Disney+ and Netflix. Let’s apply the same logic to PS+? PS+ already has more subscribers than HBO Max in the USA.
  • PlayStation (video games in general) has not even scratched the fucking surface. Most people who play video games now are millennials and kids. Do you think those millennials will stop playing video games when they grow older? No, of course not. Boomers today also still watch movies and TV. Those millennials have kids and those kids are now also playing video games. The kids of those kids will also play video games etc. Basically the total addressable audience for video games will by HUGE by the end of the decade (and the decades after that) because video games will have penetrated all age ranges of the population. Gaming is the fastest growing segment of the whole entertainment business. By a large margin. PlayStation is obviously in a great position here as you can guess from the PS5 hype, but more importantly imho, the growth of PS+ subscribers (currently a bit under 50 million) and PSN users (>100 million MAU) over the past 5 years shows that PlayStation is primed to profit from the audience growth.
  • On top of that you have huge video game growth in the China where Sony & PlayStation is already much better established than Xbox (but still super small compared to mobile games and PC gaming in China). Within the console market, Xbox only competes with PlayStation in North America. In the rest of the world, PlayStation has an enormous lead over Xbox. Xbox is simply a lesser known and lesser desirable brand in the rest of the world
  • Anime streaming (basically they have a monopoly already + vertical integration, it might still be somewhat niche right now, but it will be big within 5 years. Acquiring Crunchyroll was a very good move)
  • Music streaming (no, they don’t have a music streaming service, but as music streaming grows, Sony Music also gets a piece of the growing pie through licensing/royalties, and they also still have a little 2.8% stake in Spotify)
  • Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are currently battling it out in the streaming wars. When there’s a war you have little chances of winning, you shouldn’t be the one waging the war. You should be the one selling the ammo. Basically Sony Pictures (tv shows + movies) is in that position. Sony Pictures can negotiate good prices for their content because Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T are thirsty for content and they all want their own exclusive content. Sony Pictures does not need to prop up their own streaming service just like Sony Music doesn’t need their own music streaming service when they can just license out their content and turn a profit. There will always be demand for TV & movies content, so Sony Pictures is well positioned is as an independent content provider. And while Apple, Amazon, Netflix, AT&T and Disney are battling it out on the forefront, Sony is quietly building their anime empire in the background. Genius business move from Sony here, seriously. They now have anime production & distribution.
  • Netflix has 200M subscribers and they currently have a 250M market cap. Think about what Sony will have in 5 years? >30M Crunchyroll subscribers (assuming all anime will be consolidated into Crunhyroll) & >100M PS+ & PSNow subscribers? Anime and gaming is growing faster than movies and TV shows. (9% CAGR for anime, 12% CAGR for gaming vs. 5% CAGR for the whole movies & TV show entertainment segment which includes PVOD, SVOD, box office, TV etc etc). And gaming as a whole is MUCH bigger than SVOD streaming. Netflix gets 99% of their revenue & profit through subscriptions. For the whole Sony Group Corporation, their subscription services (games + anime) it’s currently only 4.5% of their total revenue. And somehow Sony currently has a meagre $128B market cap?
  • PlayStation alone is bigger than Netflix in terms of operating profit. PlayStation has a MUCH higher profit margin than Netflix. For Q3 2020 Netflix posted $790M operating profit and PlayStation posted $988M operating profit. Revenue was was $6.44B for Netflix vs. $4.77B for PlayStation. (and btw Sony’s mobile gaming revenue (~$1B / year) is under Sony Music, it is not even in those PlayStation numbers!!!)
  • Think about it. PlayStation alone posts bigger operating profit than Netflix (yes revenue is bit smaller, but it’s the operating profit that matters most). And gaming is growing faster than movies. And PlayStation is about 24% of Sony’s total revenue. And yet Netflix has a market cap that is equal to the double of Sony's market cap? Basically If you apply Netflix’ valuation to PlayStation then PlayStation alone should have a bigger market cap than Netflix' market cap.

PS+ growth and software digital ratio growth

  • Sony Vision-S & autonomous driving tech (selling sensors + infotainment system to other car manufacturers). Sony surprised everyone when they revealed their Sony Vision-S electric vehicle last year at CES 2020 (in-house design and made in cooperation with Magna Steyr). And it’s currently being tested on public roads. Over the past year we have seen absurdly big investment hype into anything even remotely related to EV’s (including a few questionable companies). We’ve even seen an EV company with a gravity-powered truck get a $30B market cap in June last year. Meanwhile Sony, out of nowhere, revealed what is arguably (subjectively) one of the best looking EV’s. It got very positive reception at CES 2020. An EV that you can actually drive. But somehow their stock is still dirt-cheap based on their current fundamentals alone? Yet some companies that had pretty much nothing but some EV design concepts got insane valuations purely due to hype?
  • LTE chips for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Altair Semiconductors)
  • Cross-media IP (The Last of Us show on HBO, Uncharted movie etc). Huge unrealized potential synergy here (it’s about to change). We have seen that it can turn out super well when you look at The Witcher, Sonic the Hedgehog and Detective Pikachu. When The Witcher released on Netflix, sales of The Witcher 3 significantly increased again. Imagine the same thing, but with Sony IP’s. Sony Pictures is currently working on 7 video game IP based TV shows and 3 movies. We know The Last of Us tv series is currently in production for HBO. And then the Uncharted is currently in post-production and scheduled to be released in July this year currently. If Uncharted turns out to be successful, it will mark a big, new milestone for Sony as an entertainment company imho.
  • Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan subsidiary for anime production, distribution & mobile games) had a fantastic year in 2020. (more on this later) There is a lot of room for mobile games growth with Aniplex. Thanks to Aniplex, Sony might beat their earnings forecast.
  • Drones. DJI just got put on Entity List in USA and Sony started developing drones for prosumer / professional a few years ago. Big opportunity for Sony here to take a bit from DJI’s dominance. It only makes sense for Sony to enter the drone market targeting the professional & prosumer video market, considering Sony’s established position in the professional audio/video/photography space
  • Currently Sony also has several ventures & investments in AI & robotics
  • Over the past decade, Sony has also carefully expanded into medical equipment tech & biotechnology. Worth noting that Sony also has an important 33% stake in M3 inc (a medical services through-the-internet company with a market cap of $65.5B) (= just their stake in M3 Inc is worth $22B alone, remember Sony, with their large, diversified revenue streams & assets only has a market cap of $128B?)
  • Sony Pictures has a great upcoming movie slate (MCU Spider-Man, Uncharted, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Venom 2, Morbius, Spider-Verse sequel, Hotel Transylvania 4, Peter Rabbit 2, Vivo, The Nightingale). They will profit from the theatre reopening and covid recovery. They may even become more favourable among movie theatre chains because they won’t release their movies on the same day on streaming services like Warner (and yeah movie theatres are here to stay, at least for a while imho)
  • All the above comes on top of established, mature markets (Financial Holdings & Electronic Products)
  • Oh yeah, btw though TV’s are a cyclical and mature market and are not that important for Sony Group Corporation’s bottomline*, Sony TV’s will continue to do well for the following successive years: o 2020: continued pandemic boost
  1. 2020-2021: PS5 / Xbox Series X/S
  2. 2021 Summer Olympics (tv sales ALWAYS spike during the olympics) (& the effect is more pronounced for high-end TV’s, = good for Sony because Sony’s market share is concentrated in the high-end range (they are market leader in the high-end range)
  3. 2022 FIFA world cup (exact same thing as for the olympics)
  4. You could say it’s already priced in, but the stock is already ridiculously undervalued so idk…
You would think this company somehow has a bad outlook, but that could not be further from the true, let me explain and go over some of the different divisions and explain why they will moon:
Sony Entertainment
While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.
  • Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.175B (it is a great deal for Sony imho and will immediately be more valuable under Sony. Considering the growing appetite for anime I honestly do not even understand why AT&T sold it, they could have integrated it with their other streaming service (HBO Max) but ok)
  • With Crunchyroll Sony now has the following anime empire:
  • Aniplex (anime production & distribution, subsidiary of Sony Music Entertainment Japan) F
  • Funimation
  • Manga Entertainment UK (production, licensing, and distribution, UK)
  • Wakanam (licensing and distribution in Europe)
  • AnimeLab (licensing and distribution in Australia & New Zealand)
  • Crunchyroll (3 million paying subcribers, 90 million registered users and 50 million social media followers)
* Why anime matters:

Anime growth
“The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth”
(tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition)
Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.
  • Sony also has a partnership with Bilibili for anime distribution in China:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201903/26/WS5c990d93a3104842260b2737.html
  • Bilibili already partnered with Sony Music Entertainment Japan to bring Aniplex’s hugely successful Aniplex’s Fate/Grand Order mobile game in China.
  • Sony acquired a 5% stake in Bilibili for $400M in March 2020 (that 5% stake is now already worth $2.33B at Bilibili’s current share price ($BILI) and imho $BILI still has lots of upside potential considering it is the de facto video creation/sharing/viewing à la YouTube/Twitch for GenZ in China)
https://ir.bilibili.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bilibili-announces-equity-investment-sony

Sony Music Entertainment Japan
Aniplex
  • Sony Music (mobile games) generated $400M revenue from its mobile games in Q2 FY2020, published through Aniplex (Sony Music Entertainment Japan, “SMEJ”) subsidiary
  • They are the publisher of Fate/Grand Order, one of the most profitable mobile video games of the past 5 years (has generated $4B in revenue (!!) by the end of 2019 and is still as popular as ever). Fate/Grand order is the 7th most profitable mobile game in revenue worldwide as of 2020 (!)
Fate/Grand Order #9 game by revenue last year as of Q3 2020

  • Aniplex launched Disney: Twisted Wonderland in March this year. In Q3, it was the #10 most downloaded mobile game in Japan. (Aniplex now has two top ten games in Japan)
  • Fate/Grand Order was the #2 most tweeted game in 2020 and #3 was Disney: Twisted Wonderland. You can see that Aniplex has two hugely successful mobile games. (we are talking close to $1B of revenue a year here). It is the #2 game in Japan by total revenue from Q1 2016 to Q3 2020 and the #9 game in worldwide revenue from Q1 2020 to Q3 2020.
Aniplex has two very popular mobile games
  • SMEJ earns about > $1B from mobile games in revenue from mobile games and there is still a lot of future growth potential here considering Japan’s mobile game market grew a whopping 32% yoy from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020.
  • Aniplex recently co-distrubuted the movie Demon Slayer: Mugen Train in Japan in October 2020. It became the highest grossing film of all time in Japan with a total gross box office revenue of $380M. In the middle of a pandemic. It still needs to release in South Korea, China and USA where it will most likely do great as well.
Sony Interactive Entertainment (SIE) (Game & Netwerk Services business unit):

  • We all know 2020 was a huge year for video games with the stay-at-home pandemic boost. The whole video game sector brought in $180B of revenue in 2020, a whopping 20% increase yoy.
  • But 2020 will not be just a one-off temporary exceptional year for video games. The video game market has a CAGR of 13% which means it will be worth $291B in 2027. Video games is by far the segment with the highest growth rate in the whole entertainment industry.

US video game market growth (worldwide growth has a 13% CAGR)

PlayStation revenue and operating profit growth

  • PlayStation obviously has a huge piece of this pie and over the past years has seen consistent yoy revenue and profit growth. Think about it, for every FIFA/Call of Duty/Assassin’s Creed sold on PS4/PS5, Sony gets a 30% cut. There have been sold a billion PS4 games so far.
  • 5 years ago 20 to 30% of PS4 games were purchased digitally. Flashforward to 2020 and it’s 60-75% and the digital ratio looks set to still increase a bit. This means higher profit margin for game publishers and for Sony at the expense of retailers
  • SIE has seen huge success in its first-party games over the past 5 years. Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, The Last of Us Part 2, Uncharted 4, Ghost of Tsushima, Days Gone, Ratchet & Clank have all been huge successes. This is really big and represents a big change compared to the previous generations where Sony never really hit it big as a games publisher even though most of their games were considered quality games.
  • SIE is now not only a powerful platform holdeprovider, but also a very successful games publisher with popular IP’s (Uncharted, God of War, The Last of Us, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima, Ratchet & Clank). This is an enormous asset, because firstly it increases the chances of success for cross-media opportunities (Sony Pictures can make TV shows and movies out of it to expand the popularity of those IP’s even more). And secondly, it is an obvious selling point for PS5. The more popular and bigger their exclusive content, the more they can draw people to their platform/service. This should increases PS5 total marketshare over its competitor.
  • The hype for God of War: Ragnarok will be absolutely through the roof. Hype for Horizon: Forbidden West is also very good already (10 million yt views, 273K likes which is very good). Gran Turismo 7 and Ratchet & Clank will also do very well in 2021. (I suspect that GoW oand Horizon might be delayed to 2022)
  • PS5 reception has been extremely good. Demand is through the roof as well all know. The only problem is that they cannot quite capitalize on the demand due to lack of supply, but overall, it is a very good thing that demand is very high, and that reception has been very positive. The challenge will primarily supply and production-related for the following 6 months and to be able to maintain brand momentum. Hopefully, they won’t push disappointed/inpatient customers to competitors.
  • Considering there’s backwards compatibility from PS4 to PS5, users will want all their PSN content to transition with them as well, so I expect them to lose very little marketshare to Xbox. Also, I do not know if Americans realize it, but Xbox is not nearly as big as PlayStation in the rest of the world as it is in the USA. PlayStation just has global brand power that Xbox just doesn’t have, so Xbox isn’t much of threat at all I’d say. Where I live, in Belgium, In Europe everyone is talking about the PS5, nobody really seems to care about Xbox Series S/X that much. Comparing PlayStation to Xbox in terms of mindshare is like comparing Apple to Motorola (not meant to be a diss to Motorola, I have a Motorola phone myself, just saying that Xbox has significantly less mindshare / brand power in Europe).
  • SIE is likely working on PSVR 2, this could be big.
  • Sony has a small stake in Epic Games (1.4%) and they have a good business relationship with them, so this might also make them open to release first-party games on Epic Games Store after exclusivity period on PS5.
  • Remember the Travis Scott concert in Fortnite? I believe that was one of the reasons why Sony invested in Epic Games. It serves as an example how music can sometimes converge with video games, and this can play to Sony’s strengths.
  • PlayStation also has way superior presence in Asia compared to Xbox. Have been expanding into China as well. Another great opportunity for revenue growth.
  • PS+ subscribers grew from 5.7 million by the end of 2013 to 46 million by October 30th, 2020. This is an average growth rate of 28% over the past 5 years. Considering most of the growth was early on, it will slow down, but I predict that they will have about 70 million PS+ subscribers by the end of 2023. This is huge and represents a stable, recurring source of income. Investors who keep hyping Netflix/Disney+ will love this, but it seems they have yet to discover $SNE.
  • There is a reason why Amazon, Google, Nvidia have been aggressively investing in video games & games streaming. They know the business is huge and is about to get even bigger. But considering the established, loyal PlayStation userbase, the established global brand of PlayStation and the exclusive games, PlayStation should be able to easily standoff competition from Amazon, Google and Nvidia (GeForce Now) in the next few years. So far, Amazon’s venture into game development, publishing & streaming has completely failed. Stadia and GeForceNow seem to have a bit more success, but still relatively niche. Therefore, I think PlayStation is well-positioned to remain one of the leaders in the industry for the following decade.
I'll get to the other divisions later, I figured this is a good first step.
But so far the tl;dr
Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sony Electronics 🚀
Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀
Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀
tl;dr of tl;dr:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap.
Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22
submitted by Audacimmus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I did some boring 20 page DD on $KSMT SPAC. Spoiler: I expect it to go up 70-100%

Disclaimer: This article my article. You are reading it first, as I didn't post it anywhere else.
Summary

Kismet Acquisition One (KSMT) to Combine with Nexters Global in $1.9Bn Deal

Not much information about this company, so I started writing my own research on the company. Here is the investor presentation:
https://nexters.com/images/inv_info/Nexters_Investor_Presentation.pdf
If want to understand the valuation of the company, the risk/reward, and the potential I need to answer the following questions:
  1. What is Nexters Global?
  2. SPAC is a safe bet?
  3. Comparison with its competitors?
  4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?
Let's begin!

1. What is Nexters Global?

Nexters Global is a fast-growing mobile game development company with $450 million gross revenue* (2020), 85 million total game installs, 5.4 Million monthly active users, with 10x growth of revenue in the last 2 years. Already profitable with $110 million net profit in 2020.
The management has more than 10 years of experience in creating games. Located in Cyprus (Europe) with roots in Russia (a very strong IT region). They are well known for being in Game Development since early 2005 in the epicenter of the web, social and mobile game development.
https://preview.redd.it/juhbhhuwhmg61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=529a0e927aa3bc3205430d97204d3d625f36fc8d
Since the launch, the company has proven that it can develop, publish and use marketing to scale its games. With 37% of its revenue coming from the US/Canada, 23% from Europe, 19% from Asia it is already an international company.
\In the investor presentation Nexters Global states 310 million net revenue, as at the* sec.gov reports it is more common (example) to use the gross revenue for gaming companies as their base metrics. That's why here and below I’m using gross revenue. Please see the spreadsheet below with a comparison to other companies.
Further plans are:

https://preview.redd.it/t9kdphd0img61.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70e92455e253033e99a91b17b0a1f85012e1e5b

2. SPAC is a safe bet?

There are so many SPACs, that we should be very selective on what we choose to buy. To do that we need to check if the business is real.
There are different kind of risky SPAC’s on the market:
We need to verify that Nexters Global is not on that list. Let’s have a look at the company:
The product? Web, Social, Mobile Games.
To check if their numbers are real simply open the game page in App Store and Google Play store.
Android Apps by NEXTERS GLOBAL LTD on Google Play
‎Nexters Global LTD Apps on the App Store
The top game has more than 50,000,000 installs with more than a million positive reviews and an average rating of 4.6. With other games/stores combined, it correlates with the company's stated 85 million installs.

https://preview.redd.it/jwh51gm2img61.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=428ec2dc85a4a6c1d51c67aa8fa1f7876edd3dab
I like that I can see the numbers myself, and also can "touch" the product and how it works. it increases my confidence in owning the stock.
Actually, I have been playing their top-grossing game Hero Wars for several months last year. And I loved it... loved it so much that I’ve spent around ~1000 dollars within 3 months. And I’ve seen players that spent much much more than me (higher ranked, had much more power and ranks). And there were so many players that they had to add new servers each week, or even daily.
The first impression is that I really like the product. I see how it works.
The revenue. It's huge.
In the SPAC world, there are companies that can’t make revenue but predict that their revenue will go up 10-20-50x times in 3-5 years. Usually, such companies are SCAM as they mislead investors with revenue that will never happen.
On another side, Nexters Global has already $450 million in revenue with a $110M profit. And the growth rate is +177% YoY. And even the slowdown in growth means the actual increase in revenue substantially, just by the magic of the compound growth.
I like the numbers very much here.
The addressable market
How big is the addressable market? The World’s 2.7 Billion Gamers Spent $175 Billion on Games in 2020; The Market Will Surpass $200 Billion by 2023. So Nexters Global is well-positioned in expanding market.

https://preview.redd.it/tf41au04img61.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=7547a1d3c2c8da43554a655d9b32bb4aaf4f2d97
Revenue geography shows that it is also diversified well. The company has proven that it can generate revenue all around the world, not just in its local market. That is very important in order to calculate the valuation of the company.

https://preview.redd.it/sxq08qg5img61.png?width=362&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9b771d632268efb31d96d57c831d61d8caf12f
But how long Nexters can generate revenue?
Unlike the traditional PC gaming, where the peak of sales occurs after the launch of the game and then shrinks a lot, in the online mobile game market - games get updates each month/quarter to engage customers and make them stay in the game longer.
Games with great engagement + marketing resources can stay on top charts for many years.
You just reinvest part of your revenue into marketing to earn even more. It works for games with high revenue per player (ARPPU).
Nexters Presentation: $106 - Average net bookings per paying user(2) (Q4’20)

https://preview.redd.it/jsqcmby6img61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96f6ef490ee2b16cf6ca01e8508df578bfdd302
Percentage of paying users increases. Average net booking increases.
With the 6% of paying users and $106 net payment - it is quite easy to calculate that you earn $6.36 from any user that downloads the app, so you can spend on advertisement a lot of money and you will earn even more.
When you have 277% revenue growth in 2019, 177% in 2020 it won’t just stop growing. Next year double-digit growth of revenue is highly probable.
From a statistical behavior the growth slowdown to zero is very unlikely. If we take examples of other super-hit games from Supercell (Clash of Clans) and Playrix (Gardenscapes).
Example: Playrix did continue to grow since 2016 explosive revenue withadding +41% YoY growth in 2018 +35% in 2019.

https://preview.redd.it/so9ijp08img61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6acbdf41374f89c045bb07c4b4e5f7dc235bf9
Another example: Supercell's revenue continued to grow at least 2 years after the revenue explosion before slowing down.

https://preview.redd.it/tjjuf159img61.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=01116616d83bbeeb34bbe98da012d22c3964f5d5
The growth
Great games could continue to grow. Nexters Global estimates their net revenue to reach $562 million dollars. That equals to ~$802 million gross revenue in 2023. And the company is valued at just 1.9B now. Re-think that.📷
This chart also shows that they project only +10.5% YoY growth in revenue in its current games after this year's gain. Which I think is too conservative considering the examples above. I understand that they’ve chosen the strategy not to mislead investors and should stay conservative, but I think they will easily beat their own estimates and 20-25% growth is much more realistic.
The good thing is that we can track their performance in terms of downloads and revenue in stores. We can stay ahead and know the data earlier than official numbers come out, which brings another level of transparency for investors.

Kismet Acquisition One Corp company

The company is led by CEO and Director Ivan Tavrin, the founder and Principal of investment firm Kismet Capital Group. Tavrin previously served as the CEO of PJSC MegaFon, Russia's second largest telecommunications operator, and before that, he founded UTH Russia, one of the largest independent media broadcasting groups in Russia.
Kismet Acquisition Two plans to target the internet and technology sectors operating in Europe, including Russia, as well as businesses established by founders with Russian origins.
Credit Suisse, BofA Securities and LionTree Advisors served as financial and capital markets advisors to Kismet Acquisition One Corp.
Advisors look good to me. The CEO's background and experience too. Additionally, he was one of the shareholders in the recently launched Russian IPO "OZON" marketplace. Which is now +120% up.
The only thing that sounds scary here is the word “Russia” everywhere. Is there an unwanted geopolitical risk? From the legal point of view, every entity is registered under British Law jurisdictions (Cyprus, BVI). So, basically, there shouldn't be any problems.
Well... they would better be in the US as many investors don’t like foreign companies. But there are great examples of super successful Supercell and Rovio that were NON-US too. And we know that the Russian Tech-sector is high qualified (Google Founder - Sergey Brin, Pavel Durov - Telegram, Vitalik Buterin - Etherium, and even Russian Hackers is a “meme”).
And as I said before their business looks crystal clear, anybody can check their metrics so they can’t fraud the data, unlike, for example, Luckin Coffee did in China. Therefore, this kind of risk is eliminated.

3. Comparison with its competitors?

Let's talk about numbers. I’ve tried to compare the game developer to its direct competitors. I've selected only companies with major mobile game-driven revenue.
Here is the full spreadsheet access: Nexters Global Comparison
I’ve marked the concerning metric with yellow and red, Good metric with green, Superb one with dark-green color.

https://preview.redd.it/tmsosbtaimg61.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b50cd7a1a54115bb496849c43b3611094fc6309
Please take time to read the numbers and come back after.
Update! With the latest news that Electronic Arts buys GLU Mobile with +39% premium from the market - the sector is officially undervalued.
Thoughts on Nexters Global
I ended up with numbers: P/S = 4.19, P/E = 17.27. This valuation seems just right with current earnings and the sector, but not with the future growth. As there is a Hot trend in gaming and with outstanding YoY growth could be worth much much more.

4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?

The current price of $KSMT (“GDEV”) is $10.15 which represents a $1.9B valuation. Before the deal is completed the price cannot be valued less than $10 due to SPAC rules. So there is simply no downside risk at this point..
But can it go up? What is fair valuation? Is there a risk of a selloff from shareholders? How rich the valuation can be in terms of P/E (Price to Sales ratio)?
First, let's find out the risk of insider selling:
Here is the sec report: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1814824/000121390021005589/ea134294ex99-1_kismet.htm
The Transaction is expected to deliver up to $150 million in cash to the Company’s balance sheet before advisor fees and/or redemptions by Kismet Acquisition One Corp. current shareholders, with proceeds expected to be used for general working capital purposes and potential acquisitions. Existing shareholders of Nexters will receive a cash payment of up to $150 million pro-rata to their pre-money shareholdings, and will roll approximately 92% of their holdings into the combined company while agreeing to a 12 month lock-up (subject to certain exceptions). In addition, the founders and the management will receive 20.0 million Earn-Out shares over 3 years (with 50% of the Earn-Out released at $13.50 VWAP and 50% released at $17.00 VWAP), also subject to a 12 month lock-up. The Transaction will be funded by approximately $250 million held in trust by Kismet Acquisition One Corp., subject to any redemptions, as well as the additional $50 million investment by the SPAC Sponsor, Kismet Capital Group, via an affiliate.
The investors will have a 12-month lock-up on selling + they get benefits on reaching the valuation 35% and 70% higher from the current price. This means that there will be no insider selling in the near term, which is very positive signal.
Acquisitions
Nexters Global plans to use proceeds in M&A (buying small game development studios with great projects that just don’t have enough cash, expertise, or right developer team) to benefit from its situation in order to launch great games worldwide.

https://preview.redd.it/xhypgzqfimg61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=642c03fecbb851984527c46774beb0ecc44eba0a
It is a common mistake to assume that great games can be run by small studios or individuals, as in 2020 you need at least a couple of million dollars spent on marketing to understand if the project is worth it, or not. Small developers can’t afford it. On the other side, Nexters can benefit from it really well.
If they are successful in that, we could see 10+ new titles in the future. That could diversify its game portfolio, making this company a safe bet for Hedge funds and other market players, driving future growth.
“Hero Wars 2” game announcement.
Hero Wars is the top-grossing game, which generates most of the revenue. With “Hero Wars 2” announcement the company can benefit a lot..
Usually, game sequels can do very well, as they are easier to promote, finding their “fan base” from the beginning. This could create a new source of income, work as a diversification, launch the new cycle of the revenue stream for many years ahead.
Partnership with Playrix founders
Here is another thing that I want to focus on:
Bukhman brothers acquired a 43% stake in Nexters in 2018
They are founders of “Playrix” - a private mobile game developer company, currently valued at $7B(valued in Q1 2020). Now more likely ~11B as their revenue increased 1.5 times during 2020.
Please read these articles in Bloomberg and Forbes first:
  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/billionaire-gaming-brothers-emerge-as-tencent-s-biggest-rival
  2. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https://www.forbes.ru/milliardery/410509-nash-rost-ne-svyazan-napryamuyu-s-lokdaunom-milliarder-igor-buhman-o-tom-chto
Summary from the articles:
Cashing out (selling out to Tencent or Activision Blizzard) is not interesting right now. We are growing every year. Game industry multiplicators of public companies were priced wrong . This year has changed it. And this trend will continue as top games can grow for many many years, reengaging users with updates.
Playrix is not interested in IPO's at this valuation. They want to wait until the market changes and start pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
I can assume that Playrix founders are interested in the long-term success of Nexters Global SPAC-merger in order to change how markets price the gaming companies as they want to bring Playrix to an IPO in the future. They want to wait until the market starts pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
So, for the Bukhman brothers who own 43% shares, Nexters Global is a long-term play company. They don’t want/need to cash out.
I also think that at some point, Tencent could just buy 20-30% of the company through the open market (buying shares). Why? Because it is common for Tencent to buy a stake in gaming companies that earn a lot of cash and priced at these valuations.

https://preview.redd.it/uphpbubcimg61.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f35889049fa9302786bf65d1b83f02a92d71eef

Summary

In my personal opinion, this is a great company with a bright future.
Valuation seems reasonable and there is a big upside if any of those happens:
At this exact moment, the fair valuation of the company will move to $3-4 billion dollar. (+100% upside).
At this right moment of the time as the price is near $10 there is literally no risk in a pre-merger state, as SPAC can’t go below $10 price by its concept.
Disclosure: At the moment of writing this article I do have a position in $KSMT, that is not more than 10% of my entire portfolio. I do not plan to sell at any nearest time in future. Stocks are risk assets and this is not investment advice.
submitted by khollekhokk to SPACs [link] [comments]

How I shipped my game solo on consoles & how you can do that too (Q & A)

After a good launch for my game, i started to get some random questions from users across all the channels, but there were one user on reddit (u/TamoorGames) who had many questions and he sent them in a very nice and organized way (mostly asking about the Xbox and Nintendo Switch for each question), i did answer him. Although i own the answers, i did ask his permission to put his questions alongside my answers in public, just in case it can help someone. So, Enjoy it, and feel free to AMA.

Q.1: Have you signed up as Individual or as a company? Or enrolled into Xbox Creator Program? Can you please share the overall process in a quick brief.
- Singed by myself for both platforms, i only had to contact the ID@Xbox team, show them my game, they first didn't approve it as it was not polished enough, so i did try once more time after a couple of years, and then it was approved, and everything started from there. No not Creator Program, and tbh i don't even know what is Creator Program, will google it later.
For Nintendo, I did reach out the Nindies guy who was always on the youtube videos and on twitter (he left by now, a new guy came, and that new guy just left a year ago or so). But in general, this is how i showed my game, just reaching out the nindies team leader.
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Q.2: From which country you’d signed up? Is the Xbox Developer program available for developers all around the world? I’ll signup from Pakistan
- I did from China while I'm not Chinese, i would say Microsfot is the most open company, they don't have per region issues, like for example if you are in China and try to sort things with Sony or Nintendo, it won't be that easy...not at all. Because you've then to go through Japan office (due to region), but then you targeting the western market and English only game...it becomes a lot of communications and troubles.
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Q.3: Can we publish any game on Xbox? Or first we need to get concept approval from Xbox and then we can start our development. Or does Xbox have any categories on which we can only develop our games? e.g. shooting, puzzle etc
- While the certain answer for this question is not from me, but I would say any game. Xbox & Switch are platforms, mostly for gaming, despite the fact there are some apps in there (YouTube, Netflix,...etc.) so whatever your game genre or type is, I'm sure if they like it they won't mind it on their platform.
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Q.4: Which Game engine have you used to develop your game? I am using UNITY. Is it good for Xbox or i’ve to consider any other game engine?
- Unreal. Any Engine is good for any platform. Don't let the engine be your biggest issue, we're are in 2020, all Engines are great and most of them are cross platform. if you are not so confident about Unity, you can just remember it made Cuphead, Ori franchise, Max & Magic Marker, and many more Xbox exclusives. And if we start thinking about Unity games made for Switch, we will have endless list! Even more than Unreal based titles, as Unity already prove that it is super optimized engine for Nintendo devices since the WiiU and 3ds.
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Q.5: Can you please share the list of Hardware that you used for Xbox development and testing? E.g. Does Xbox have their own development kit or we can test our game on any Xbox? Which Xbox you used?
- Yes, i used devkits. With that said, i learned that any Xbox One (consumer device) can be turned to a devkit mode. I tested my game on Xbox One S & Xbox one X (the weakest and the Powerful one, so i can grantee the performance).
For Nintendo, i can't explain what hardware i did use, but once you are approved you've access to the documentations where you can read about the different hardware types, and then you can based on your use and game type or development type request the hardware that you need.
But all in all, for any platform, you need their hardware (aka devkit). And at least one device per platform.
==================================================================================
Q.6: What are the main reasons for rejection from Xbox? And what factors do I need to consider while developing my game?
- If you mean rejected as a project to be released on the platform, I guess when my game rejected first time, because it hasn't a "Full playable loop". Start, Play, End, Restart if you want. It was a punch of levels, not connected, no UI & lots of Debug menus. Xbox team (or any other platform) they need a very clean and clear vision so they can decide..
==================================================================================
Q.7: What kind of Legal document and other Document Xbox require? This will help me to save time by preparing in advance.
- Most of the documents as far as i can remember, they send to you. You don't produce documents, you just read and sign (of course if you find it make sense and nothing against your goals or considerations). Xbox was the least demanding, Nintendo was fine, no magical papers were requested. But Sony for example would require your last fiscal year revenue breakdown and documents to proof that!
==================================================================================
Q.8: Do Xbox have their own tools for leaderboard, cloud, ranking & in-app purchases?
- Any Xbox player already know, all that called Xbox Live (which is a set of services), and most of the engines does have high level interface to deal with those services. Don't worry :) and there is always documentations and pages to help you, either at Xbox websites or at the engine (Unity at your case) site.
For Nintendo it is different, i don't have any online features in my game, because online in Nintendo is treated differently, where any user on Xbox have online access and online features, in Nintendo the online features you purchase as a product (per month, per year,...etc.), so it is common to find many games doesn't have leaderboard or clouds save,...etc.
But again, all engines already have the high level interface for those features, regardless you will support them or no.
==================================================================================
Q.9: Can you please share the complexities of the Xbox development as you’d mentioned in your message? Like which development steps i can follow to avoid delays and rejections (Any Tips and Tricks)
- I was already familiar with the platform[s] (remember I'm already a game engine programmer), but what was new and seemed complex to me was the "rules" of the platform. Those are things you must read about at your first days of developing for the platform, due to NDA i can't talk further about that. But what i meant by the rules it is for example how to save, when to save, for example a platform would give you limit/bandwidth for saving calls per second, where other platform won't care and give you unlimited calls. Or what is the status of a player while playing (online/offline), some platforms won't care, where others would care a lot about that. Can a player change account while playing or not, some platforms would require, where others would not even allow.....etc. those are thing that vary between the different platforms, and they were the reason for any rejection i had (the ignorance of the rules). Because even if your game is already complete and finished before the port, the port to a platform is not just hit "Build", you have to "re-adapt" the game for the platform.
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Q.10: What advice would you like to give yourself, if you are starting today as an Xbox Developer?
- Don't rush things. And try to "Understand" the reason behind any thing in the platform. If you just adapt the game for the platform rules, you will have lots of complications, because you could make something to fit a rule, but it break with another rule. If you understand perfectly the platform, and the reason behind everything, you will not suffer during development.
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Q.11: What are the things you wished you knew when you were starting as an Xbox Developer?
- as i said, the platform set of rules. It takes time to know them correctly.
==================================================================================
Q.12: Can you please share any other tips and tricks or would like to add any point/Question if i am missing?
- just focus on the game more than on what platforms you need to target. If your game is good, solid, bug free, the platform stuff won't take much time. Also some info about how to be recognized by platforms could be changed, I've been Nintendo developer for long time, even before the Switch device announced, and I've been Xbox developer since 2014 i guess, when the ID program was announced. So things might be different, might be easier or might be harder now, not quite sure.
==================================================================================
Finally, few more points:
submitted by VikongGames to gamedev [link] [comments]

$CRSR Corsair DD

Corsair Gaming ($CRSR)
Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming
Company Overview
Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California.
They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market.
Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B.
Understanding the Business
Value Proposition
Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly.
Revenue Streams
Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems.
Gamer and Creator Peripherals:
which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers.
Gaming Components Systems:
which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems.
Acquisitions and Partnerships:
During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers.
Industry
Market Size
According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year.
Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B.
Industry Fundamentals
Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals.
Popularity of gaming is increasing:
According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market.
Tech-driven improvements in game quality:
Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware.
Increasing gaming and streaming engagement:
Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
The eSports and streaming flywheel
The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers.
Competitive Landscape & Risks
Competition
The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes:
Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer
Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX
Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia
Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech
PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake
High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron
Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower
Competitive Strategy
The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition.
Market Share
According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US.
Growth Strategy
Move into the Asia Pacific region:
The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community.
Complimentary acquisitions:
Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position.
New Markets:
Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment.
Threat of New Entrants
Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers).
Threat of Substitution
A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment.
Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components.
According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027.
Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry.
Moats
There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering.
Other Relevant Risks
Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes.
Financial Summary
Proforma Balance Sheet
https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL
Income Statement
https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN
For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year:
The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%).
Proforma Cashflow Statement
https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY
Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019.
Peer Comparison
https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6
Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU)
Why am I posting this now?
I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets.
Record pc sales:
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry).
Google trends:
https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5
My price target for this earnings: $55
disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted.
credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
submitted by erythaean to stocks [link] [comments]

NEW INFO - Funko Toys DD

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (2/9/21) : $13.30
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Updating a previous DD post on Funko Toys with additional data points from the earnings releases of two major toy companies (Mattel and Hasbro). Strong toy sales performance from both companies suggests that Funko sales should be solid when they report in March.

Here are some highlights on the two major toy companies below with additional detail on each company’s performance in the body of this post:
· Q1 2021 sales volumes continue strong in January; following a robust Q4 in 2020
· E-commerce is a major driver of toy sales during the holidays and in a “COVID World”
· The toy segment has recovered quickly from the industry challenges faced in early 2020
· Very strong sales growth in North America & Europe; slower growth in LatAM and Asia
· Mattel and Hasbro’s sales performance aligns well with other data points suggesting that the toy industry overall was strong during Q4 2020 and will continue to do well in 2021

SUMMARY FROM THE ORIGINAL FUNKO DD
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive

MATTEL - KEY INSIGHTS FROM THEIR Q4 2020 EARNINGS RELEASE (Feb 9th)
It was a “banner quarter” with Mattel's “best performance in years,” per the CEO.
· Total revenue up 10% during Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
> North America up 13%; International up 8%
> Achieved revenue growth in all four regions in constant currency
> Highest 4th quarter growth rate in 15 years
o EMEA up 12%
o Latin America up 3%
o Asia Pacific up 8%
· Gross margins were up 300 basis points to 51.4%
· Adjusted EBITDA was up 53% to $284 million
· “The fourth quarter and full year demonstrated the resilience of the toy industry and the priority that parents place on quality toys, trusted brands, and purposeful play” - Ynon Kreiz, Mattel Chairman & CEO
Segment sales accelerated in Q4 2020 (vs. the prior three quarters)
· Dolls:
> Up 13% in Q4 2020 (vs. up 11% in constant currency for full year 2020)
> Includes "Barbie" and "American Girl" brands
· Infant, Toddler, & Preschool:
> Up 7% in Q4 2020 (vs. down 8% in constant currency for full year 2020)
> Includes "Fisher-Price" and "Thomas & Friends" brands
· Vehicles:
> Up 12% in Q4 2020 (vs. up 3% in constant currency for full year 2020)
> Includes "Hot Wheels" brand
· Action figures, Building Sets, & Games:
> Up 9% in Q4 2020 (vs. up 2% in constant currency for full year 2020)
> Includes "Star Wars," "MEGA," and "Uno" brands
E-commerce maintained strong momentum during Q4 2020
· POS was up more than 40% (vs. Q4 2019)
· Represents more than 35% of global POS
HASBRO - KEY INSIGHTS FROM THEIR Q4 2020 EARNINGS RELEASE (Feb 8th)
Sales in 2021 are starting off strong; extending the longer than normal holiday season
· Strong consumer demand starting in Oct 2020 continuing through Jan 2021
· January 2021 POS sales are up nearly 30% vs. the same time the prior year
· “Weeks following Christmas have been incredibly strong. And in January, we are actually seeing an acceleration. I think as people get gift cards and as people who weren’t together for the holidays, and sends presents and other gifting, gift cards and other formats, we’re just seeing an immense amount of consumption of Hasbro brands and products, lots of strong launches coming as we move our way through the first quarter.” – Brian Goldner; Hasbro CEO
· Hasbro believes they can deliver mid single-digit revenue growth in 2021
> “This year, and we believe we’ll be in line with or ahead of the industry depending on where they land. But again, I’ve said around mid single-digits is in a good, robust year is where we should be able to deliver toys and games growth.” – Brian Goldner; Hasbro CEO
Net revenue increase of 4% during Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
· US and Canada segment revenues up 16%
· Hasbro gaming segment up 21%
· Franchise brands up 7%
· Gains in US and Canada offset by sales declines in LatAM and Asia
· Hasbro had strong performance during Q4 despite tough comparables to the prior year where they were drafting off of Frozen’s strong sales performance
E-commerce revenues were up 43% in 2020 (reaching $1 billion for the first time)
· E-commerce was approximately 30% of global revenues in 2020
· E-commerce POS up 19% during the Q4 2020
· “Pure-play and omni-channel retailers led this growth and omni-channel made significant strides to double their e-comm revenue for the year. Our teams work closely with retailers to expand their online offerings as many added click and collect to their capabilities during the year. With channel support and innovative tailored product, Hasbro also grew revenues with the fan channel last year.” – Brian Goldner; Hasbro
Hasbro continues to reduce its reliance on China in 2020 by diversifying manufacturing as a way to reduce supply shocks and potential tariffs in a China trade war
· “In addition to our global retail network, our global supply chain capabilities and our evolving geographic manufacturing supplier base were essential to meeting demand. Due to COVID and changing consumer behaviors, we had disruptions from production to logistics, but the team worked tirelessly to meet the demand and successfully execute the year. We added new e-comm capabilities and identified opportunities to further enhance these going forward. We continued to diversify our manufacturing, reducing our reliance on any one country, ending 2020 with approximately 55% of production in China.”
> For comparison, 70% of Funko’s goods were produced outside of China as of late 2019.
Latin America and Asia were down in 2020 given e-commerce is underdeveloped
· “As we discussed throughout the year, Latin America was challenging. The toy and game market declined. Retailers were closed. E-comm is underdeveloped. And we reduced our inventory at retail. This impacted 2020 revenue and margins and we are now better positioned to stabilize the business and drive profit improvement this year.” – Deb Thomas; Hasbro EVP & CFO
· “To better help you understand the components of cost of sales we included the 2020 breakdown in our earnings presentation today. The improvements were partially offset by additional markdowns in Latin America and Asia to reduce inventory levels at retail.” – Deb Thomas; Hasbro EVP & CFO
TL;DR:
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Additionally, strong earnings releases from Mattel and Hasbro bode well for Funko when they release their Q4 2020 numbers in the coming weeks.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment.
Previous DD: Herman Miller, Funko
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china online gaming market share video

China online gaming users have grown to about 540 million or 57.4% of total internet users in the first half of 2020. Mobile online games users reached 536 million or 57.5% of total mobile internet users. According to CNNIC, 25.8% of mobile apps in the Chinese market are games, the largest category by total number of apps. Global Online Gaming Market is estimated to be valued US$ XX.X million in 2019. The report on Online Gaming Market provides qualitative as well as quantitative analysis in terms of market dynamics, competition scenarios, opportunity analysis, market growth, etc. for the forecast year up to 2029. China's online game sector in the A-share market has exceeded 650 billion yuan ($92.97 million) in market value, Securities Times reported Friday. In 2019, the market volume of online gaming in China had amounted to about 288 billion yuan. Online gaming in China – additional information China online gaming market is anticipated to grow with a significant CAGR of 15.9% during the forecast period (2020-2026). The country is the largest market for the gaming industry globally with a China online gaming market is one of the biggest online gaming markets in the world, surpassing the United States and Japan. The users of China online gaming is anticipated to cross 700 Million by According to gaming industry stats, the Asia-Pacific gaming revenue is estimated to amount to over $174 billion by 2021. Reports further show that about $72.2 billion was generated by the Asian game market alone in 2019. This is twice that of the North American gaming market. 5. China is the country with the largest video games market globally. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the market research firm Newzoo projected that China would recapture its position as the world’s largest gaming market in 2020. While China’s online gaming market is already enormous and continues to grow, it is subject to a complicated and continually changing regulatory landscape. 10.1 Market Share of Online Gaming Companies in China, 2018 10.2 Market Share of Mobile Gaming in China, 2018 10.3 Detailed Profiles of Key Stakeholders in China 10.3.1 Game Publishers China online gaming market is expected to surpass US$ 75 Billion by 2024. The user of China online gaming is anticipated to cross 700 Million by 2024. This report covers China Online Gaming Market, Number of Users, Category (Mobile, PC Online Client Games, Web), Market based on Age Group (below 19, 19-25, 26+) Years, Segments (Large Client Games, Platform Games, Social Games, Other Games

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china online gaming market share

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